Value hunting is universal. It's applicable to both life and business. And it will apply to football betting as well. Many punters fail to comprehend the significance of value betting. This really is the most important BUT also the most misunderstood concept in football betting. Value is the true key to making profit in the long run.
WHAT IS VALUE
Simply, value is available when you are able obtain an item at under what it is in fact worth. The next illustration will clearly explain this.
You are an antique enthusiast and you are browsing around an antiques shop. You see a wonderful old vase available for $100. You know you might resell the vase for at least $120. This means there is VALUE in purchasing the vase. The important thing here's your KNOWLEDGE that the vase is in fact worth $120.
However, if you purchase the vase with the intention to offer it but WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE just how much you might sell the vase for, then this is simply not a wise purchase and it is not a value buy.
Exactly the same principle relates to football 가상축구 betting. In sports, the true value of the results of a fit is expressed by the possibility of that outcome happening. If you can get a price that will be HIGHER than the one indicated by the probability, then you have found value.
So, the values (or odds) offered by the bookmakers are related to the possibility of that outcome happening. Now, how do we determine if the chances are of value?
PRICES (OR ODDS)
Fair prices (or odds) are set if the effect is expected to be a 50/50 situation.
Let's take the example of the flipping of a coin. As you can find two sides of the coin, the likelihood of heads and tails are 50% each. The formula to calculate the odds in this 50/50 situation is 100 / 50 = 2. Therefore, odds of 2 are called FAIR ODDS.
So, if we're betting on coin-throws, when the cost offered is lower than 2, then it doesn't have value because we will definitely lose. However, if the cost is more than 2, say 2.10, it means the probability for the win is 5% higher (2.10/2.00). This really is value.
HOW TO CALCULATE IF A BET HAS VALUE
Before we know how to find value, we must first learn how to calculate probability and value.
Probability Calculation
The formula is:
Probability = 1 / 0dds
So, if an event is offered at 2.50, then it features a possibility of
1 / 2.5 = 40% potential for happening ACCORDING TO THE BOOKMAKER.
In the event that you estimate the 'true' chance is higher than 40%, then you have found value.
Value Calculation
The formula is:
Odds x Percentage / 100 > 1.0 (The figure must certanly be higher than 1.0 to have value)
In the aforementioned example, in the event that you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the worth calculation will undoubtedly be :
2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This is value while the figure is higher than 1.0)
HOW TO FIND VALUE
The keys to value punting are:
* How accurate you are able to estimate the winning percentage of the outcome.
* Getting the very best odds for that event.
Calculating the winning chance is not an easy task. Finding value is 100% subjective. One may deem odds of 1.20 is value but another may disagree. Some punters believe for odds of 1.20, the event should have a probability potential for at least 83% because they've to win five out of six such 1.20 events to stay profit.
So, finding value odds is quite individualistic. Sometimes, odds of 1.50 represents value. Sometimes, even 15.00 isn't worth the shot.
After researching the typical selection criteria, shortlist your betting targets. Then create your personal estimations on the percentage of Home win, a draw or Away win. No strategy is placed in stone. You've to test various methods and as time passes, you'll realise how certain factors will influence the results a lot more than others.